Falling Rolls Analysis

Author

Shivansh Agnihotri

Published

March 5, 2024

Modified

March 14, 2024

This report aims to explore the impact of ‘Falling Rolls’ on academies, investigating lower pupil numbers resulting from declining populations in specific areas. The analysis is conducted for our customer, Alison Perry, to provide insights into challenges faced by academies in adapting to changing demographic trends.

1 BFR Forecasts vs AR Actuals for August 2023

Comparing the BFR forecast outturn for August 2023 with the AR actual outturn for the same period provides a crucial understanding of how well predictions align with the actual outcomes, enabling informed decisions for future planning.

2 Pupil Numbers

Examining pupil numbers from the October 2022 and October 2023 school census, along with forecasted pupil numbers for Academic Years 2023/24, 2024/25 and 2025/26 from the BFR, offers valuable insights into enrollment trends. This analysis contributes to strategic planning by anticipating potential challenges and opportunities for academies in the coming years.

3 Budgeted Staff Costs

The analysis for the percentage of income budgeted for staff costs in Academic Years 2023/24, 2024/25, and 2025/26 is currently a placeholder, pending the availability of relevant data. Once the necessary information is obtained, this section will be updated to provide insights into the allocation of income towards staff costs, aiding in a comprehensive understanding of financial planning for the specified academic years.